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Ga Southern

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-9.72259
Elo1454.28234
RPI0.477217
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.506
Rank: 7 of 14 in SBC, 225 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 81 of 364 in D1
225th

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.179
Rank: 12 of 14 in SBC, 311 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 14 in SBC, 129 of 364 in D1
311th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.310
Rank: 8 of 14 in SBC, 139 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 14 in SBC, 97 of 364 in D1
139th

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.268
Rank: 14 of 14 in SBC, 337 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 12 of 14 in SBC, 261 of 364 in D1
337th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.500
Rank: 7 of 14 in SBC, 123 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 14 in SBC, 157 of 364 in D1
123rd

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.167
Rank: 4 of 14 in SBC, 127 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 14 in SBC, 143 of 364 in D1
127th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.700
Rank: 11 of 14 in SBC, 298 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 93 of 364 in D1
298th

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.441
Rank: 13 of 14 in SBC, 354 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 14 in SBC, 62 of 364 in D1
354th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 99.00
281st

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.8%
221st

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.8%
95th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 43.0%
278th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 55.7%
297th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.8%
313th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 47.8%
273rd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.1%
254th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 44.3%
68th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.1%
57th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 38.0%
58th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.1%
173rd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 26.8%
337th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.9%
353rd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.6%
335th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 65.7%
341st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 51.0%
213th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.5%
209th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.9%
340th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.3%
321st

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 17.9%
311th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 31.0%
139th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.92
42nd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.02
278th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.51
225th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 108.72
230th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.1%
72nd

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.7%
62nd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.7%
142nd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.4%
158th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.7%
111th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 48.8%
105th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.1%
229th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.6%
207th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.3%
111th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.0%
165th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.9%
84th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 44.1%
354th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.5%
352nd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.4%
355th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.5%
71st

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.9%
160th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.8%
82nd

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.2%
126th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.1%
331st

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.7%
127th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 70.0%
298th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.54
41st

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05
193rd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
123rd
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