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Merrimack

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-3.34194
Elo1538.28135
RPI0.511145
Updated through 2025-04-07

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend


About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.494
Rank: 8 of 13 in MAAC, 281 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 13 in MAAC, 184 of 364 in D1
281st

Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.127
Rank: 1 of 13 in MAAC, 6 of 364 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 13 in MAAC, 16 of 364 in D1
6th

Off Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.184
Rank: 12 of 13 in MAAC, 361 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 13 in MAAC, 234 of 364 in D1
361st

FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.248
Rank: 11 of 13 in MAAC, 354 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 13 in MAAC, 257 of 364 in D1
354th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.473
Rank: 2 of 13 in MAAC, 27 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 13 in MAAC, 120 of 364 in D1
27th

Opp Turnovers


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.215
Rank: 1 of 13 in MAAC, 4 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 13 in MAAC, 23 of 364 in D1
4th

Def Reb Pct


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.633
Rank: 13 of 13 in MAAC, 362 of 364 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 13 in MAAC, 66 of 364 in D1
362nd

Opp FT Rate


2024-25 Season Mean: 0.305
Rank: 7 of 13 in MAAC, 106 of 364 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 10 of 13 in MAAC, 187 of 364 in D1
106th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 97.83
301st

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.6%
236th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 86.2%
80th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 42.3%
315th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 57.0%
282nd

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.2%
288th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.2%
235th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.4%
275th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.0%
83rd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.3%
89th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.0%
75th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.0%
228th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 24.8%
354th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 15.1%
350th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.8%
355th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.3%
165th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 49.3%
256th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 7.6%
17th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.2%
106th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.7%
337th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 12.7%
6th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 18.4%
361st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 65.52
351st

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.01
301st

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.49
281st

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 101.17
90th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.9%
64th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.2%
212th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 41.6%
44th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 63.7%
271st

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.3%
147th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 53.7%
281st

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 47.2%
39th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 36.3%
94th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.5%
45th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.5%
111th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.9%
83rd

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 30.5%
106th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.0%
96th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.0%
103rd

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.5%
230th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 60.1%
346th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.3%
2nd

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.7%
85th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.7%
147th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 21.5%
4th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 63.3%
362nd

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.22
339th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.97
25th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.5%
27th
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