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Tarleton

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	-12.49	274
Elo	1447.19	253
RPI	0.471	231

Updated through 2026-02-14

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2026-01-26	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-16	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Utah Tech	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Utah Valley	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2020-11-25	Dallas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	103-48	1-0 (0-0)
2020-12-02	Texas A&M	A	Non-Conference	L	66-73	1-1 (0-0)
2020-12-05	Abil Christian	A	Non-Conference	L	48-69	1-2 (0-0)
2020-12-09	Arlington Baptist	H	Non-D1	W	84-43	2-2 (0-0)
2021-01-08	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	72-75	2-3 (0-1)
2021-01-09	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	48-59	2-4 (0-2)
2021-01-15	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	74-83	2-5 (0-3)
2021-01-16	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	67-73	2-6 (0-4)
2021-01-17	Weber State	A	Non-Conference	L	79-94	2-7 (0-4)
2021-01-25	Howard Payne	H	Non-D1	W	113-53	3-7 (0-4)
2021-01-29	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	60-73	3-8 (0-5)
2021-01-30	Utah Valley	A	Conference	W	70-62	4-8 (1-5)
2021-02-06	SW Adventist	H	Non-D1	W	97-26	5-8 (1-5)
2021-02-09	McMurry	H	Non-D1	W	112-54	6-8 (1-5)
2021-02-19	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	77-59	7-8 (2-5)
2021-02-20	Dixie State	A	Conference	L	48-64	7-9 (2-6)
2021-02-26	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	51-78	7-10 (2-7)
2021-02-27	New Mexico St	H	Conference	W	64-55	8-10 (3-7)
2021-03-05	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	65-47	9-10 (4-7)
2021-03-06	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	69-58	10-10 (5-7)
2021-11-09	Stanford	A	Non-Conference	L	50-62	0-1 (0-0)
2021-11-12	Kansas	A	Non-Conference	L	62-88	0-2 (0-0)
2021-11-16	Wichita State	A	Non-Conference	L	51-65	0-3 (0-0)
2021-11-19	Paul Quinn	H	Non-D1	W	69-42	1-3 (0-0)
2021-11-22	North Dakota St	A	Non-Conference	L	53-54	1-4 (0-0)
2021-11-24	Michigan	A	Non-Conference	L	54-65	1-5 (0-0)
2021-11-29	Gonzaga	A	Non-Conference	L	55-64	1-6 (0-0)
2021-12-05	Charleston So	H	Non-Conference	L	57-59	1-7 (0-0)
2021-12-07	Dallas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	84-65	2-7 (0-0)
2021-12-08	Southwest Assemblies of God	H	Non-D1	W	81-75	3-7 (0-0)
2021-12-14	South Alabama	A	Non-Conference	L	62-69	3-8 (0-0)
2021-12-17	South Alabama	H	Non-Conference	W	65-52	4-8 (0-0)
2021-12-21	Air Force	H	Non-Conference	W	67-45	5-8 (0-0)
2021-12-30	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	83-69	6-8 (1-0)
2022-01-01	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	55-77	6-9 (1-1)
2022-01-06	Sam Houston	H	Conference	W	75-64	7-9 (2-1)
2022-01-08	SF Austin	H	Conference	W	77-71	8-9 (3-1)
2022-01-13	New Mexico St	A	Conference	L	57-73	8-10 (3-2)
2022-01-15	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	59-80	8-11 (3-3)
2022-01-20	California Baptist	H	Conference	L	84-88	8-12 (3-4)
2022-01-22	Seattle	H	Conference	L	68-76	8-13 (3-5)
2022-01-26	Lamar	A	Conference	W	62-57	9-13 (4-5)
2022-01-29	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	79-64	10-13 (5-5)
2022-02-05	Chicago State	H	Conference	W	57-54	11-13 (6-5)
2022-02-12	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	63-77	11-14 (6-6)
2022-02-16	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	56-69	11-15 (6-7)
2022-02-19	Chicago State	A	Conference	W	79-60	12-15 (7-7)
2022-02-24	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	75-62	13-15 (8-7)
2022-02-26	Lamar	H	Conference	W	57-49	14-15 (9-7)
2022-03-03	Sam Houston	A	Conference	L	50-69	14-16 (9-8)
2022-03-05	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	56-61	14-17 (9-9)
2022-11-07	Arizona State	A	Non-Conference	L	59-62	0-1 (0-0)
2022-11-10	Kansas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	95-49	1-1 (0-0)
2022-11-18	Belmont	N	Non-Conference	W	89-81	2-1 (0-0)
2022-11-20	Boston College	N	Non-Conference	W	70-54	3-1 (0-0)
2022-11-21	Drake	N	Non-Conference	L	64-71	3-2 (0-0)
2022-11-26	Wichita State	A	Non-Conference	L	71-83	3-3 (0-0)
2022-11-29	Weber State	H	Non-Conference	W	75-65	4-3 (0-0)
2022-12-03	Wiley	H	Non-D1	W	98-55	5-3 (0-0)
2022-12-06	Baylor	A	Non-Conference	L	57-80	5-4 (0-0)
2022-12-11	UCF	A	Non-Conference	L	49-75	5-5 (0-0)
2022-12-18	Air Force	A	Non-Conference	L	67-81	5-6 (0-0)
2022-12-21	Huston-Tillotson	H	Non-D1	W	114-56	6-6 (0-0)
2022-12-29	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	70-63	7-6 (1-0)
2022-12-31	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	63-69	7-7 (1-1)
2023-01-05	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	68-65	8-7 (2-1)
2023-01-07	Sam Houston	A	Conference	L	68-75	8-8 (2-2)
2023-01-11	Chicago State	H	Non-Conference	W	73-63	9-8 (2-2)
2023-01-14	Abil Christian	H	Conference	W	72-63	10-8 (3-2)
2023-01-19	Seattle	A	Conference	L	47-67	10-9 (3-3)
2023-01-21	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	48-77	10-10 (3-4)
2023-01-26	Dixie State	H	Conference	W	74-72	11-10 (4-4)
2023-01-28	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	W	81-62	12-10 (5-4)
2023-02-04	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	L	65-68	12-11 (5-5)
2023-02-06	UT Arlington	A	Conference	W	69-64	13-11 (6-5)
2023-02-09	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	62-72	13-12 (6-6)
2023-02-11	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	75-71	14-12 (7-6)
2023-02-15	SF Austin	A	Conference	L	60-65	14-13 (7-7)
2023-02-18	Sam Houston	H	Conference	L	59-64	14-14 (7-8)
2023-02-23	Utah Valley	H	Conference	W	77-58	15-14 (8-8)
2023-02-25	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	L	95-99	15-15 (8-9)
2023-02-28	Southwestern Assemblies of God	H	Non-D1	W	110-45	16-15 (8-9)
2023-03-03	New Mexico St	H	Conference Tournament	-	-	-
2023-03-07	UT Rio Grande	N	Conference Tournament	W	74-70	17-15 (8-9)
2023-03-09	Utah Valley	N	Conference Tournament	L	58-72	17-16 (8-9)
2023-03-19	Radford	N	Discount Tire CBI - 1st Round	L	70-72	17-17 (8-9)
2023-11-06	UVA	A	Non-Conference	L	50-80	0-1 (0-0)
2023-11-09	FIU	A	Non-Conference	W	82-65	1-1 (0-0)
2023-11-11	UNT Dallas	H	Non-D1	W	93-52	2-1 (0-0)
2023-11-14	Bradley	A	Non-Conference	L	63-86	2-2 (0-0)
2023-11-20	Austin Peay	N	Non-Conference	W	66-59	3-2 (0-0)
2023-11-22	CSU Bakersfield	N	Non-Conference	W	59-40	4-2 (0-0)
2023-11-29	SF Austin	A	Conference	W	68-66	5-2 (1-0)
2023-12-02	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	77-75	6-2 (2-0)
2023-12-05	Hardin-Simmons	H	Non-D1	W	92-56	7-2 (2-0)
2023-12-12	Sterling College (KS)	H	Non-D1	W	85-47	8-2 (2-0)
2023-12-18	Jacksonville St	H	Non-Conference	L	62-65	8-3 (2-0)
2023-12-21	Tennessee	A	Non-Conference	L	46-65	8-4 (2-0)
2023-12-29	Loyola Mary	A	Non-Conference	W	79-66	9-4 (2-0)
2024-01-04	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	78-76	10-4 (3-0)
2024-01-11	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	63-77	10-5 (3-1)
2024-01-13	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	48-74	10-6 (3-2)
2024-01-18	Abil Christian	H	Conference	W	79-71	11-6 (4-2)
2024-01-20	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	77-73	12-6 (5-2)
2024-01-25	Southern Utah	H	Conference	L	70-73	12-7 (5-3)
2024-01-27	Dixie State	H	Conference	W	86-68	13-7 (6-3)
2024-02-01	Abil Christian	A	Conference	W	76-73	14-7 (7-3)
2024-02-03	SF Austin	H	Conference	W	75-64	15-7 (8-3)
2024-02-08	Utah Valley	A	Conference	W	72-61	16-7 (9-3)
2024-02-10	Seattle	A	Conference	W	82-77	17-7 (10-3)
2024-02-15	UT Arlington	A	Conference	W	80-78	18-7 (11-3)
2024-02-22	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	W	77-74	19-7 (12-3)
2024-02-24	California Baptist	H	Conference	W	82-65	20-7 (13-3)
2024-02-29	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	85-74	21-7 (14-3)
2024-03-02	Southern Utah	A	Conference	W	88-83	22-7 (15-3)
2024-03-07	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	60-63	22-8 (15-4)
2024-03-09	Seattle	H	Conference	W	69-66	23-8 (16-4)
2024-03-15	UT Arlington	N	Conference Tournament	L	84-87	23-9 (16-4)
2024-03-19	Texas Southern	N	CIT	W	82-71	24-9 (16-4)
2024-03-20	Abil Christian	N	CIT	W	86-59	25-9 (16-4)
2024-03-25	Fort Wayne	N	CIT - SEMIFINAL	L	72-73	25-10 (16-4)
2024-11-04	SMU	A	Non-Conference	L	62-96	0-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09	Sam Houston	H	Non-Conference	L	62-91	0-2 (0-0)
2024-11-12	Florida State	A	Non-Conference	L	52-72	0-3 (0-0)
2024-11-17	Baylor	A	Non-Conference	L	41-104	0-4 (0-0)
2024-11-21	Michigan	A	Non-Conference	L	49-72	0-5 (0-0)
2024-11-29	Iona	N	Non-Conference	L	51-62	0-6 (0-0)
2024-11-30	Hofstra	N	Non-Conference	W	61-59	1-6 (0-0)
2024-12-01	Indiana State	N	Non-Conference	L	71-87	1-7 (0-0)
2024-12-03	Dallas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	90-50	2-7 (0-0)
2024-12-08	UCF	A	Non-Conference	L	51-66	2-8 (0-0)
2024-12-16	UTEP	A	Non-Conference	L	62-67	2-9 (0-0)
2024-12-18	Oklahoma State	A	Non-Conference	L	61-66	2-10 (0-0)
2024-12-21	Howard Payne	H	Non-D1	W	100-83	3-10 (0-0)
2024-12-29	Florida A&M	H	Non-Conference	W	70-60	4-10 (0-0)
2025-01-04	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	77-74	5-10 (1-0)
2025-01-09	Southern Utah	A	Conference	W	74-66	6-10 (2-0)
2025-01-11	Dixie State	A	Conference	L	54-58	6-11 (2-1)
2025-01-16	California Baptist	H	Conference	W	67-57	7-11 (3-1)
2025-01-18	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	64-88	7-12 (3-2)
2025-01-23	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	56-67	7-13 (3-3)
2025-01-30	Dixie State	H	Conference	W	61-54	8-13 (4-3)
2025-02-01	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	75-58	9-13 (5-3)
2025-02-06	Seattle	A	Conference	L	54-91	9-14 (5-4)
2025-02-08	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	56-81	9-15 (5-5)
2025-02-13	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	60-64	9-16 (5-6)
2025-02-15	Seattle	H	Conference	W	67-64	10-16 (6-6)
2025-02-22	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	57-67	10-17 (6-7)
2025-02-27	Abil Christian	H	Conference	W	67-52	11-17 (7-7)
2025-03-06	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	48-68	11-18 (7-8)
2025-03-08	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	66-71	11-19 (7-9)
2025-03-13	California Baptist	N	Conference Tournament	L	51-55	11-20 (7-9)
2025-11-03	SMU	A	Non-Conference	L	76-96	0-1 (0-0)
2025-11-05	LSU	A	Non-Conference	L	60-96	0-2 (0-0)
2025-11-08	Texas A&M-CC	H	Non-Conference	W	85-77	1-2 (0-0)
2025-11-11	Merrimack	H	Non-Conference	W	76-62	2-2 (0-0)
2025-11-14	Baylor	A	Non-Conference	L	81-94	2-3 (0-0)
2025-11-17	Angelo State	H	Non-D1	W	77-54	3-3 (0-0)
2025-11-20	Rice	A	Non-Conference	W	90-74	4-3 (0-0)
2025-11-28	Midwestern State	H	Non-D1	W	67-57	5-3 (0-0)
2025-12-01	Cincinnati	A	Non-Conference	L	58-76	5-4 (0-0)
2025-12-03	Howard Payne	H	Non-D1	W	119-54	6-4 (0-0)
2025-12-07	Cameron	H	Non-D1	W	93-63	7-4 (0-0)
2025-12-16	Miss Valley St	A	Non-Conference	W	88-64	8-4 (0-0)
2025-12-19	Florida A&M	H	Non-Conference	W	78-54	9-4 (0-0)
2025-12-29	UT Arlington	A	Conference	W	69-63	10-4 (1-0)
2026-01-01	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	85-91	10-5 (1-1)
2026-01-03	California Baptist	H	Conference	W	81-76	11-5 (2-1)
2026-01-08	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	80-84	11-6 (2-2)
2026-01-15	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	105-106	11-7 (2-3)
2026-01-17	Utah Tech	A	Conference	L	71-75	11-8 (2-4)
2026-01-21	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	64-71	11-9 (2-5)
2026-01-26	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	55-83	11-10 (2-6)
2026-01-31	Utah Tech	H	Conference	L	59-65	11-11 (2-7)
2026-02-05	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	55-56	11-12 (2-8)
2026-02-07	Southern Utah	A	Conference	W	62-59	12-12 (3-8)
2026-02-14	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	59-73	12-13 (3-9)
2026-02-16	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Utah Tech	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Utah Valley	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-

Tarleton Offense

Metric	Tarleton	Opponent	Metric

Tarleton Defense

Metric	Tarleton	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	Tarleton	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Mean
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.487
Rank: 5 of 7 in WAC, 297 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 318 of 365 in D1

297th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.190
Rank: 3 of 7 in WAC, 346 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 351 of 365 in D1

346th

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 27.380
Rank: 5 of 7 in WAC, 215 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 362 of 365 in D1

215th

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.422
Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 50 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 350 of 365 in D1

50th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.552
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 322 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 69 of 365 in D1

322nd

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.236
Rank: 1 of 7 in WAC, 1 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 7 in WAC, 18 of 365 in D1

1st

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 65.730
Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 346 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 335 of 365 in D1

346th

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.465
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 347 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 36 of 365 in D1

347th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 100.78

314th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.2%

306th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 78.0%

353rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 45.2%

185th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 74.9%

2nd

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.1%

59th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 58.3%

21st

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 49.4%

298th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 25.1%

364th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 6.2%

365th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.7%

365th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.9%

324th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 42.2%

50th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.6%

77th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.4%

107th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 74.7%

87th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 43.1%

352nd

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 8.3%

111th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.8%

233rd

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.7%

251st

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.0%

346th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 27.4%

215th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 74.03

30th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.00

318th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.49

297th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 113.27

195th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.1%

78th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 73.9%

2nd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 47.8%

311th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 58.8%

126th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.1%

72nd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 43.3%

14th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 56.1%

314th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 41.2%

240th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.0%

173rd

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.6%

104th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.7%

281st

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 46.5%

347th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.2%

313th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 33.4%

317th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 71.6%

151st

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 55.4%

266th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.1%

4th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.0%

253rd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.9%

331st

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 23.6%

1st

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 65.7%

346th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.20

84th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.05

143rd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.55

322nd