College Basketball Analytics, Insights, and Trends
| Model | Score | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Adj EM | 2.97 | 137 |
| Elo | 1569.88 | 98 |
| RPI | 0.523 | 131 |
The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).
| Date | Opponent | Site | Type | Result | Score | Record (Conf) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Denver | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-07 | South Dakota | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-10 | Oral Roberts | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-15 | North Dakota | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-17 | North Dakota State | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-22 | South Dakota State | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-24 | South Dakota | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-29 | North Dakota | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-01 | Kansas City | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-04 | South Dakota State | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-07 | Oral Roberts | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-12 | Omaha | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-14 | Kansas City | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-21 | Denver | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-26 | North Dakota State | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-28 | Omaha | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Type | Result | Score | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-11-09 | Chicago State | A | Non-Conference | L | 72-77 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| 2021-11-13 | St Francis (BKN) | A | Non-Conference | W | 91-73 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| 2021-11-15 | Fordham | A | Non-Conference | L | 78-84 | 1-2 (0-0) |
| 2021-11-19 | Youngstown St | A | Non-Conference | L | 75-79 | 1-3 (0-0) |
| 2021-11-20 | Niagara | N | Non-Conference | W | 76-67 | 2-3 (0-0) |
| 2021-11-21 | SIUE | N | Non-Conference | W | 86-73 | 3-3 (0-0) |
| 2021-11-27 | Seattle | A | Non-Conference | L | 64-81 | 3-4 (0-0) |
| 2021-12-02 | Crown College | H | Non-D1 | W | 73-53 | 4-4 (0-0) |
| 2021-12-05 | Drake | A | Non-Conference | L | 64-74 | 4-5 (0-0) |
| 2021-12-11 | Montana State | H | Non-Conference | L | 65-72 | 4-6 (0-0) |
| 2021-12-14 | Northland College | H | Non-D1 | W | 109-50 | 5-6 (0-0) |
| 2021-12-20 | Omaha | A | Conference | W | 80-73 | 6-6 (1-0) |
| 2021-12-22 | Denver | A | Conference | L | 74-75 | 6-7 (1-1) |
| 2021-12-29 | North Central (MN) | H | Non-D1 | W | 97-45 | 7-7 (1-1) |
| 2022-01-01 | W Illinois | H | Conference | W | 89-66 | 8-7 (2-1) |
| 2022-01-06 | Oral Roberts | H | Conference | L | 66-81 | 8-8 (2-2) |
| 2022-01-08 | UM Kansas City | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2022-01-13 | North Dakota St | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2022-01-15 | North Dakota | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2022-01-20 | South Dakota St | H | Conference | L | 77-92 | 8-9 (2-3) |
| 2022-01-22 | South Dakota | H | Conference | L | 79-90 | 8-10 (2-4) |
| 2022-01-25 | North Dakota St | A | Conference | L | 56-77 | 8-11 (2-5) |
| 2022-01-29 | W Illinois | A | Conference | L | 52-81 | 8-12 (2-6) |
| 2022-02-03 | UM Kansas City | A | Conference | L | 72-81 | 8-13 (2-7) |
| 2022-02-05 | Oral Roberts | A | Conference | L | 66-88 | 8-14 (2-8) |
| 2022-02-08 | UM Kansas City | H | Conference | L | 67-76 | 8-15 (2-9) |
| 2022-02-10 | North Dakota | H | Conference | L | 70-78 | 8-16 (2-10) |
| 2022-02-12 | North Dakota St | H | Conference | L | 64-75 | 8-17 (2-11) |
| 2022-02-17 | South Dakota | A | Conference | L | 60-81 | 8-18 (2-12) |
| 2022-02-19 | South Dakota St | A | Conference | L | 60-79 | 8-19 (2-13) |
| 2022-02-22 | North Dakota | A | Conference | W | 84-74 | 9-19 (3-13) |
| 2022-02-24 | Denver | H | Conference | L | 80-91 | 9-20 (3-14) |
| 2022-02-26 | Omaha | H | Conference | W | 95-74 | 10-20 (4-14) |
| 2022-11-07 | Creighton | A | Non-Conference | L | 60-72 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-11 | Chicago State | H | Non-Conference | W | 83-61 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-13 | St Francis (BKN) | H | Non-Conference | W | 84-48 | 2-1 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-17 | Montana | N | Non-Conference | L | 59-78 | 2-2 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-18 | Troy | N | Non-Conference | W | 78-76 | 3-2 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-19 | Merrimack | N | Non-Conference | W | 72-61 | 4-2 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-23 | Milwaukee | A | Non-Conference | W | 76-72 | 5-2 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-26 | Utah | A | Non-Conference | L | 66-95 | 5-3 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-29 | North Central (MN) | H | Non-D1 | W | 111-63 | 6-3 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-03 | Crown College | H | Non-D1 | W | 91-56 | 7-3 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-08 | Montana State | A | Non-Conference | L | 65-82 | 7-4 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-10 | Idaho State | A | Non-Conference | W | 76-70 | 8-4 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-13 | Green Bay | H | Non-Conference | W | 82-61 | 9-4 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-19 | North Dakota | H | Conference | W | 75-62 | 10-4 (1-0) |
| 2022-12-21 | North Dakota St | H | Conference | W | 78-68 | 11-4 (2-0) |
| 2022-12-29 | South Dakota | A | Conference | L | 84-92 | 11-5 (2-1) |
| 2022-12-31 | South Dakota St | A | Conference | L | 64-71 | 11-6 (2-2) |
| 2023-01-05 | Denver | H | Conference | W | 81-71 | 12-6 (3-2) |
| 2023-01-07 | Omaha | H | Conference | W | 80-68 | 13-6 (4-2) |
| 2023-01-12 | UM Kansas City | A | Conference | L | 60-81 | 13-7 (4-3) |
| 2023-01-14 | Oral Roberts | A | Conference | L | 69-81 | 13-8 (4-4) |
| 2023-01-21 | W Illinois | A | Conference | L | 56-60 | 13-9 (4-5) |
| 2023-01-26 | South Dakota St | H | Conference | W | 60-54 | 14-9 (5-5) |
| 2023-01-28 | South Dakota | H | Conference | L | 67-81 | 14-10 (5-6) |
| 2023-02-02 | Omaha | A | Conference | W | 89-83 | 15-10 (6-6) |
| 2023-02-04 | Denver | A | Conference | W | 68-57 | 16-10 (7-6) |
| 2023-02-09 | Oral Roberts | H | Conference | L | 88-95 | 16-11 (7-7) |
| 2023-02-11 | UM Kansas City | H | Conference | W | 73-43 | 17-11 (8-7) |
| 2023-02-18 | W Illinois | H | Conference | W | 82-69 | 18-11 (9-7) |
| 2023-02-23 | North Dakota St | A | Conference | L | 64-73 | 18-12 (9-8) |
| 2023-02-25 | North Dakota | A | Conference | L | 74-82 | 18-13 (9-9) |
| 2023-03-05 | W Illinois | N | Conference Tournament | W | 67-60 | 19-13 (9-9) |
| 2023-03-06 | Oral Roberts | N | Conference Tournament | L | 65-70 | 19-14 (9-9) |
| 2023-11-06 | Cal | A | Non-Conference | L | 66-71 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-10 | Idaho State | H | Non-Conference | W | 54-53 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-12 | North Central (MN) | H | Non-D1 | W | 100-54 | 2-1 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-17 | Cal Poly | N | Non-Conference | L | 60-61 | 2-2 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-18 | California Baptist | A | Non-Conference | L | 62-66 | 2-3 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-19 | Portland State | N | Non-Conference | W | 76-70 | 3-3 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-25 | Green Bay | A | Non-Conference | L | 51-64 | 3-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-01 | W Michigan | A | Non-Conference | W | 65-51 | 4-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-06 | Milwaukee | H | Non-Conference | W | 75-71 | 5-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-10 | Chicago State | A | Non-Conference | W | 66-50 | 6-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-14 | Marquette | A | Non-Conference | L | 79-84 | 6-5 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-17 | Crown College | H | Non-D1 | W | 85-66 | 7-5 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-21 | University of Wisconsin River Falls | H | Non-D1 | W | 104-51 | 8-5 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-29 | North Dakota | A | Conference | W | 70-45 | 9-5 (1-0) |
| 2023-12-31 | UM Kansas City | H | Conference | W | 77-56 | 10-5 (2-0) |
| 2024-01-03 | Idaho | A | Non-Conference | W | 75-67 | 11-5 (2-0) |
| 2024-01-06 | Sacramento St | H | Non-Conference | W | 63-50 | 12-5 (2-0) |
| 2024-01-11 | South Dakota St | H | Conference | L | 80-81 | 12-6 (2-1) |
| 2024-01-13 | Oral Roberts | A | Conference | W | 87-76 | 13-6 (3-1) |
| 2024-01-18 | South Dakota | A | Conference | L | 73-74 | 13-7 (3-2) |
| 2024-01-25 | North Dakota St | H | Conference | W | 79-66 | 14-7 (4-2) |
| 2024-01-27 | North Dakota | H | Conference | L | 64-74 | 14-8 (4-3) |
| 2024-02-01 | Omaha | A | Conference | L | 65-69 | 14-9 (4-4) |
| 2024-02-03 | UM Kansas City | A | Conference | W | 71-56 | 15-9 (5-4) |
| 2024-02-08 | Oral Roberts | H | Conference | W | 85-63 | 16-9 (6-4) |
| 2024-02-10 | Denver | A | Conference | L | 77-94 | 16-10 (6-5) |
| 2024-02-17 | South Dakota | H | Conference | W | 83-80 | 17-10 (7-5) |
| 2024-02-22 | North Dakota St | A | Conference | L | 50-64 | 17-11 (7-6) |
| 2024-02-24 | South Dakota St | A | Conference | L | 72-77 | 17-12 (7-7) |
| 2024-02-29 | Omaha | H | Conference | W | 88-61 | 18-12 (8-7) |
| 2024-03-02 | Denver | H | Conference | W | 83-58 | 19-12 (9-7) |
| 2024-03-10 | North Dakota St | N | Conference Tournament | W | 68-58 | 20-12 (9-7) |
| 2024-03-11 | South Dakota St | N | Conference Tournament | L | 49-59 | 20-13 (9-7) |
| 2024-11-04 | North Central (MN) | H | Non-D1 | W | 96-71 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-08 | Green Bay | A | Non-Conference | W | 90-76 | 2-0 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-10 | Oklahoma State | A | Non-Conference | L | 71-80 | 2-1 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-15 | St. Norbert | H | Non-D1 | W | 102-54 | 3-1 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-17 | Arizona State | A | Non-Conference | L | 66-81 | 3-2 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-22 | Wofford | N | Non-Conference | L | 73-81 | 3-3 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-23 | Portland State | N | Non-Conference | W | 91-65 | 4-3 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-24 | Milwaukee | A | Non-Conference | L | 65-69 | 4-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-02 | Chicago State | H | Non-Conference | W | 98-76 | 5-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-04 | N Colorado | A | Non-Conference | W | 87-75 | 6-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-07 | Montana | H | Non-Conference | W | 88-81 | 7-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-13 | W Michigan | H | Non-Conference | W | 77-71 | 8-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-15 | Crown College | H | Non-D1 | W | 100-61 | 9-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-21 | Bowling Green | A | Non-Conference | W | 93-68 | 10-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-29 | UC Riverside | A | Non-Conference | L | 79-81 | 10-5 (0-0) |
| 2025-01-02 | North Dakota St | A | Conference | W | 89-85 | 11-5 (1-0) |
| 2025-01-04 | North Dakota | A | Conference | W | 88-80 | 12-5 (2-0) |
| 2025-01-08 | South Dakota St | H | Conference | W | 73-72 | 13-5 (3-0) |
| 2025-01-11 | South Dakota | H | Conference | W | 119-104 | 14-5 (4-0) |
| 2025-01-18 | Denver | H | Conference | W | 74-62 | 15-5 (5-0) |
| 2025-01-23 | Omaha | A | Conference | L | 78-89 | 15-6 (5-1) |
| 2025-01-25 | UM Kansas City | A | Conference | W | 68-65 | 16-6 (6-1) |
| 2025-01-29 | Oral Roberts | H | Conference | W | 86-71 | 17-6 (7-1) |
| 2025-02-02 | North Dakota St | H | Conference | W | 79-62 | 18-6 (8-1) |
| 2025-02-06 | South Dakota St | A | Conference | L | 86-102 | 18-7 (8-2) |
| 2025-02-08 | Denver | A | Conference | W | 79-76 | 19-7 (9-2) |
| 2025-02-15 | Omaha | H | Conference | W | 95-84 | 20-7 (10-2) |
| 2025-02-19 | South Dakota | A | Conference | L | 80-85 | 20-8 (10-3) |
| 2025-02-22 | Oral Roberts | A | Conference | L | 66-71 | 20-9 (10-4) |
| 2025-02-27 | North Dakota | H | Conference | W | 86-71 | 21-9 (11-4) |
| 2025-03-01 | UM Kansas City | H | Conference | W | 65-59 | 22-9 (12-4) |
| 2025-03-06 | Denver | N | Conference Tournament | W | 80-62 | 23-9 (12-4) |
| 2025-03-08 | North Dakota | N | Conference Tournament | W | 85-69 | 24-9 (12-4) |
| 2025-03-09 | Omaha | N | Conference Tournament | L | 75-85 | 24-10 (12-4) |
| 2025-11-03 | Saint Mary's | A | Non-Conference | L | 58-84 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-08 | Army | H | Non-Conference | W | 83-76 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-10 | Washington St | A | Non-Conference | L | 71-81 | 1-2 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-13 | Green Bay | H | Non-Conference | W | 80-61 | 2-2 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-15 | SE Missouri St | A | Non-Conference | W | 84-72 | 3-2 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-21 | N Colorado | N | Non-Conference | W | 73-72 | 4-2 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-22 | CSU Fullerton | N | Non-Conference | L | 80-88 | 4-3 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-23 | Portland | A | Non-Conference | W | 76-66 | 5-3 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-29 | Lawrence University | H | Non-D1 | W | 87-52 | 6-3 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-03 | Montana State | A | Non-Conference | L | 74-82 | 6-4 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-07 | Weber State | H | Non-Conference | W | 88-65 | 7-4 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-11 | Saint John's (MN) | H | Non-D1 | W | 80-56 | 8-4 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-13 | UNC Asheville | A | Non-Conference | W | 80-59 | 9-4 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-20 | UC Riverside | H | Non-Conference | W | 92-78 | 10-4 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-28 | North Central (MN) | H | Non-D1 | W | 105-59 | 11-4 (0-0) |
| 2026-01-04 | Denver | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-07 | South Dakota | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-10 | Oral Roberts | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-15 | North Dakota | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-17 | North Dakota State | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-22 | South Dakota State | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-24 | South Dakota | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-29 | North Dakota | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-01 | Kansas City | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-04 | South Dakota State | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-07 | Oral Roberts | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-12 | Omaha | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-14 | Kansas City | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-21 | Denver | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-26 | North Dakota State | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-02-28 | Omaha | H | Conference | - | - | - |
| Metric | St. Thomas - Minnesota | Opponent | Metric |
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| Metric | St. Thomas - Minnesota | Opponent | Metric |
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| Model | St. Thomas - Minnesota | Opponent | Predicted Score | Spread | Result | MAE |
|---|